Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic

Abstract:
Among the greatest uncertainties in future energy supply is the amount of oil and gas yet to be found in the Arctic. For better or worse, technological advances and diminishing opportunities elsewhere make the Arctic increasingly attractive to oil and gas exploration. Retreating polar ice, shifting ecosystems, and heightened development potential are vital issues to the Arctic nations, to petroleum companies, and to all concerned about the region’s fragile environments. Using a probabilistic geology-based methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey has assessed the area north of the Arctic Circle and concluded that about 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil may be found there, mostly offshore under less than 500m of water. Undiscovered natural gas is three times more abundant than oil in the Arctic and is largely concentrated in Russia. Oil resources, while important to the interests of Arctic countries, are probably not sufficient to significantly shift the current geographic pattern of world oil production.

Biographical Sketch:
Donald L. Gautier is a geologist with the Energy Resources Program of the United States Geological Survey. Born in Los Angeles, he holds a Ph.D. in geology from the University of Colorado and worked for Mobil Oil Corporation before joining the USGS in 1977. He is the author of more than 200 publications, many of which concern evaluation of undiscovered oil and gas resources. Gautier leads the USGS World Energy Project and was the principal investigator for the in 2008 completed USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal. His residence is in Palo Alto, California.